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新建液化天然氣出口終端浪潮或將打擊天然氣價格
點擊次數：372 發表時間：2023-3-21
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中國石化新聞網
中國石化新聞網訊 據天然氣加工新聞網2023年3月14日報道，業內分析師表示，全球范圍內將在本十年中期上線的大量液化天然氣出口項目，將與成本較低的可再生能源和復興的核電行業展開競爭，這可能會影響天然氣價格，并影響一些擬議中的液化天然氣項目。
擬議和批準的新液化天然氣廠將使全球液化天然氣年供應量從2021年的水平增加67%，至2030年前的6.36億噸，屆時可能會使全球天然氣市場飽和。
美國著名液化天然氣出口商切尼爾能源公司首席執行官杰克·富斯科上周在休斯敦舉行的一次能源會議上表示：“目前世界上正在建設的天然氣基礎設施價值超過一萬億美元。天然氣市場將出現長期轉變，天然氣將繼續存在。”
在卡塔爾，一個大規模的液化天然氣擴建項目到2027年前將年增4900萬噸液化天然氣。根據FactSet公司BTU Analytics匯編的數據，到2027年底前，美國項目的液化天然氣年產能可能增加1.25億噸 (164億立方英尺/天)。
從這些項目可能面臨的潛在波動中可以看出，去年液化天然氣價格因歐洲強勁需求而飆升，但隨后隨著庫存增加以及客戶抵制高價格并轉向其他能源而下滑。
這種轉變只會加速。據說氣候智庫Ember估計，僅在2021年，風能和太陽能發電在全球發電中所占的份額就從一年前的1%躍升至10%以上。
與此同時，全球核能發電正在反彈：日本計劃到2030年前將核能發電在電力中所占的比例從去年的不到7%提高到至少20%。法國計劃在2035年前建造6座新核電站。
需求的不確定性
業內分析師認為，液化天然氣價格在2027年左右之前將保持強勁，但在那之后，由于需求前景不明朗，液化天然氣價格可能會下降。
標普全球(S&P Global)全球天然氣戰略主管邁克爾·斯托帕德表示：“業內關注的一大不確定性是，高價格對中期天然氣需求造成了多大損害。”
由于價格飆升，標普全球將新興市場液化天然氣的需求增長預期推遲了兩年。
美國能源經濟與金融分析研究所（IEEFA）2月份在一份報告中表示，液化天然氣“獲得了一種昂貴且不可靠燃料的聲譽”，這可能危及在需求前景最高的亞洲建設新液化天然氣進口終端的計劃。
由于疫情防控和價格波動，亞洲大國去年液化天然氣的進口量減少20%。IEEFA稱，印度、巴基斯坦和孟加拉國去年也把液化天然氣采購總量削減16%。
處境危險的項目
在美國，由于今年北半球冬季相對溫和，加之液化天然氣價格上漲，導致美國天然氣價格低于新生產成本，導致鉆井活動減少，天然氣市場在今年年初出現波動。
埃森哲戰略主管Muqsit Ashraf預計，到2027年前后，強勁的需求將支撐液化天然氣價格。
曾負責埃森哲戰略全球能源業務的Ashraf說：“在那之后會發生什么，更多的是一場辯論，取決于今年的投資決定如何發展。”
主要液化天然氣設備供應商美國貝克休斯公司今年1月份曾警告稱，成本通脹和利率上升放緩了液化天然氣項目最終投資決定的步伐。
不過，貝克休斯公司預計今年獲批的液化天然氣項目數將“大幅增長”。今年的第一個獲批的液化天然氣項目是在3月13日，Venture Global LNG公司批準了其2000萬噸/年的Plaquemines液化天然氣項目的第二階段。
風險在于，這個項目將在需求增長放緩并沖擊全球液化天然氣價格之際投產。
向液化天然氣出口商供應天然氣的美國天然氣管道運營商Williams Companies首席執行官Alan Armstrong表示：“當你聽到人們說‘我們不可能過度建設’時，那就是事情過度發展的時候了。”
李峻 編譯自 天然氣加工新聞網
原文如下：
Wave of new LNG export plants threatens to knock gas prices
A flood of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects due online worldwide in mid-decade will vie against lower-cost renewable energy and a revived nuclear power sector, which could rock gas prices and hurt some proposed projects, analysts say.
Proposed and approved new LNG plants would boost LNG supply by 67% increase to 636 MMtpy by 2030 from 2021 levels, potentially saturating the gas market.
"There's over a trillion dollars of natural gas infrastructure being built in the world today. There's a set secular shift and natural gas that is here to stay," said Jack Fusco, CEO of LNG exporter Cheniere Energy at a conference in Houston last week.
In Qatar, a massive LNG expansion project will add 49 mtpa by 2027. U.S. projects could add 125 MMtpy (16.4 Bft3d) of capacity by late 2027, according to data compiled by BTU Analytics, a FactSet company.
In a taste of the potential volatility those projects might face, LNG prices last year soared on European demand, then slid as storage filled and customers pushed back against the high prices and switched to other energy sources.
That shift is only going to accelerate. In 2021 alone, wind and solar's share of global power generation jumped to more than 10% from just 1% a year earlier, climate think tank Ember estimates.
At the same time, nuclear is rebounding: Japan aims to boost nuclear's share of its power to at least 20% by 2030 from less than 7% last year. France is proposing to build six nuclear reactors by 2035.
DEMAND UNCERTAINTY
Analysts see LNG prices remaining strong until around 2027, but after that they may fall as the demand outlook is hazy.
"One big uncertainty the industry is focused on is how much damage the high prices has done to medium term gas demand," said Michael Stoppard, who leads global gas strategy at S&P Global.
S&P Global pushed back its demand growth outlook for LNG from emerging markets by two years due to the spike in prices.
LNG has "acquired a reputation as a costly and unreliable fuel" that could jeopardize plans to build new import terminals in Asia, the region with the highest demand outlook, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said in a report last month.
The biggest country in Asia cut its LNG purchases by 20% last year on COVID-19 curbs and price volatility. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh also slashed combined LNG purchases by 16% last year, IEEFA said.
PROJECTS AT RISK
In the U.S., gas markets saw a volatile start to the year after a relatively mild northern hemisphere winter and higher LNG prices which led to conservation sent U.S. prices below the cost of new production and led to a retrenchment in drilling.
Muqsit Ashraf, who leads Accenture Strategy, expects solid demand to support LNG prices through around 2027.
"What happens after that is more of a debate and depends on how investment decisions play out this year," said Ashraf, who previously headed Accenture's global energy practice.
Baker Hughes, a major LNG equipment supplier, warned in January that cost inflation and higher interest rates had slowed the pace of LNG final investment decisions.
Still, it anticipates "significant growth" in project approvals this year. The year's first came on Monday, with Venture Global LNG authorizing the second-phase of its 20 mtpa Plaquemines LNG project.
The risk is projects will come on line just as demand growth slows and hit global LNG prices.
"When you hear people say 'there is no way we will overbuild this,' that's when things get over-built," said Alan Armstrong, CEO of U.S. gas pipeline operator Williams Companies which supplies gas to LNG exporters.