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歐洲天然氣需求回升
點擊次數(shù)：794 發(fā)表時間：2023-3-29
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中國石化新聞網(wǎng)
中國石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)鉆機地帶網(wǎng)3月24日報道，隨著天然氣價格降至地緣政治沖突前的水平，歐洲企業(yè)正在使用更多的天然氣，這可能會給準備應對供應有限的下一個冬天帶來壓力。
復蘇的萌芽主要體現(xiàn)在煉油行業(yè)，該行業(yè)可以更容易地在從天然氣到燃料油等各種原材料之間進行轉(zhuǎn)換。本月早些時候，荷蘭數(shù)據(jù)顯示，該國石油行業(yè)的天然氣使用量創(chuàng)下今年最大單周增幅，而法國和西班牙天然氣網(wǎng)絡數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2月份煉油商的需求較上年同期有所增長。
復蘇的速度對歐盟至關(guān)重要，對歐盟如何準備迎接沒有管道天然氣的第二個冬天至關(guān)重要。瑞典SEB AB銀行表示，需求反彈可能會將今年的天然氣價格從目前的每兆瓦時43歐元推高至100歐元(合109美元)以上，并削弱庫存。最大的天然氣交易商之一維多集團(Vitol Group)也持同樣觀點。
TotalEnergies SE首席執(zhí)行官Patrick Pouyanne表示，去年，一些制造業(yè)從天然氣轉(zhuǎn)向燃料。他周二在倫敦的一次演講中表示：“今年他們的反應非常積極，他們從柴油或燃料轉(zhuǎn)向天然氣，因此產(chǎn)生了額外的需求。”
Energy Aspects Ltd.稱，與煉油廠一樣，石化廠也將是經(jīng)濟復蘇的一個良好指標，因為它們可以很容易地重新使用天然氣發(fā)電和供熱。
該行業(yè)顧問表示：“其他天然氣密集型行業(yè)將需要更長的時間才能在2023年恢復，因為它們的需求減少是減少產(chǎn)量而不是燃料轉(zhuǎn)換的結(jié)果。”
隨著天然氣價格在能源危機最嚴重時期飆升至創(chuàng)紀錄水平，西班牙9月份的工業(yè)用氣需求較上年同期暴跌了40%。國際能源署(International Energy Agency)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年歐洲生產(chǎn)企業(yè)和制造企業(yè)的總使用量下降了約20%，占去年總消費量創(chuàng)紀錄降幅的近一半。今年，國際能源署預計工業(yè)需求將恢復10%左右。
荷蘭基準天然氣期貨價格從8月底每兆瓦時340歐元以上的峰值下跌了約90%。網(wǎng)絡運營商Enagas SA說，今年2月，西班牙煉油商的原油使用量飆升8.1%，但將整個行業(yè)較上年同期的整體降幅為9.5%。
哥倫比亞廣播公司的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在荷蘭，石油和化工行業(yè)的天然氣使用量本月也開始超過去年的水平。
彭博經(jīng)濟(Bloomberg Economics)資深歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟學家梅瓦·庫桑(Maeva Cousin)表示：“能源成本下降——可能再加上需求市場重新開放帶來的更強勁需求——意味著我們預計工業(yè)生產(chǎn)今年將對歐元區(qū)的增長作出一些積極貢獻。”
雖然高盛集團(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)預計工業(yè)復蘇將在本月底開始加快步伐，但其他分析師警告稱，這可能還需要一段時間。
Energy Aspects表示：“天然氣供應商的天然氣關(guān)稅需要時間才能下降到足夠低的水平，工廠經(jīng)理也需要一段可持續(xù)的時間才能做出恢復生產(chǎn)的決定。”
工廠移動
盡管油價大幅下跌，但仍遠高于歷史平均水平，預計在2025年左右新的全球供應到來之前，油價將一直保持在高位。
這意味著隨著工廠搬遷到能源成本更低的地區(qū)，一些需求可能會永遠消失。
化工公司巴斯夫(BASF SE)、陶氏化學(Dow Inc.)和朗時(Lanxess AG)準備裁員數(shù)千人，并將投資轉(zhuǎn)移出德國，因為它們不指望柏林能以接近它們曾經(jīng)購買管道天然氣的價格可靠地提供它們所需的能源。
德國VCI化學協(xié)會今年早些時候的一項調(diào)查顯示，由于能源成本高企，近一半的公司計劃今年削減在德國的投資。Alsterresearch AG分析師沃揚(Oliver Wojahn)說，生產(chǎn)可能會轉(zhuǎn)移到價值觀和政治制度相似的國家。
VCI在本月的一份報告中表示：“德國第三大行業(yè)的未來前景有所好轉(zhuǎn)。”“近幾個月來，能源和原材料價格大幅下跌，穩(wěn)定了似乎已經(jīng)觸底的形勢。與疫情或全球經(jīng)濟危機不同，這一次不會出現(xiàn)強勁的復蘇。”
壽琳玲 編譯自 鉆機地帶
原文如下：
Gas Demand Recovery in Europe Rallies
European companies are using more natural gas as prices drop to levels seen before the Ukraine war, putting a potential strain on preparations for another winter with limited supplies.
The green shoots are mainly evident in the refining industry, which can switch more easily between raw materials ranging from natural gas to fuel oil. Earlier this month, Dutch data showed the country’s petroleum sector had the biggest weekly gain in gas use this year, while French and Spanish gas network figures indicated refiners’ demand advanced in February from a year earlier.
The speed of the recovery will be crucial for the European Union and how it readies for a second winter with no pipeline gas from the largger country. Rebounding demand could push prices past €100 ($109) per megawatt-hour this year, from about €43 now, and chip away at stockpiles, according to Swedish bank SEB AB. It’s a view echoed by Vitol Group, one of the biggest gas traders.
“Some manufacturing industries last year shifted from gas to fuel,” said Patrick Pouyanne, chief executive officer at TotalEnergies SE. “Now this year they are very reactive, they shift back from diesel or fuel to gas, so it’s creating an additional demand,” he said at a presentation in London on Tuesday.
Along with refineries, petrochemical plants will also be a good indicator of the recovery because they can easily switch back to gas to make power and heat, according to Energy Aspects Ltd.
“Other gas-intensive sectors will take longer to recover over the course of 2023 owing to their demand reductions being the result of reducing output rather than fuel switching,” the industry consultant said.
As gas prices soared to records at the height of the energy crisis, Spanish industrial gas demand plunged as much as 40% in September from a year earlier. Overall usage by factories and plants slumped about 20% last year in Europe, accounting for almost half of the record drop in total consumption last year, according to the International Energy Agency. This year, the IEA expects demand in industry to recover by about 10%.
From a peak above €340 per megawatt-hour in late August, benchmark Dutch gas futures have dropped about 90%. In February, usage by Spain’s refiners soared 8.1%, helping to pare an overall drop by industry to 9.5% from a year earlier, network operator Enagas SA said.
In the Netherlands, gas use in the petroleum and the chemical industries have also started to exceed last year’s levels this month, CBS data show.
“Lower energy costs — combined, possibly, with stronger demand from the reopening of consummer— mean that we expect industrial production to make some positive contributions to growth in the euro area this year,” said Maeva Cousin, a senior euro-area economist at Bloomberg Economics.
While Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects the industrial recovery will start to gather pace by the end of this month, other analysts warned it could still be a while.
“It will take time for gas tariffs from gas suppliers to fall enough and over a sustainable period for factory managers to take the decision to resume output,” Energy Aspects said.
Factories Moving
Despite the plunge in prices, they are still way above the historical average and are expected to remain elevated until about 2025 when new global supply is poised to arrive.
That means some demand may be lost forever as factories relocated to parts of the world where energy costs are lower.
Chemical firms BASF SE, Dow Inc. and Lanxess AG are poised to cut thousands of jobs and shift investment out of Germany because they don’t expect Berlin to reliably provide the energy they need at prices close to those they once paid for pipeline gas.
A survey from Germany’s VCI chemical association earlier this year revealed that almost half of companies plan to cut investment in the country this year due to high energy costs. Production is likely to shift to countries with similar values and political systems, said Oliver Wojahn, an analyst at Alsterresearch AG.
“The outlook for the future has brightened somewhat in Germany’s third-largest industry,” VCI said in a report this month. “The major drop in energy and raw material prices in recent months has stabilized the situation where the bottom seems to have been reached. Unlike the pandemic or the global economic crisis, this time there will be no powerful recovery.”