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EIA下調天然氣價格預測
點擊次數：379 發表時間：2023-3-9
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中國石化新聞網
中國石化新聞網訊 據油價網2023年3月7日報道，根據周二發布的最新版《短期能源展望報告》，美國能源信息署（EIA）下調了其對2023年和2024年天然氣價格的預測。
EIA目前預計，今年天然氣均價為3.02美元/百萬英熱單位，較之前預估的3.40美元/百萬英熱單位下降11.2%。相比之下，EIA估計，2022年天然氣價格平均為6.42美元/百萬英熱單位。
EIA還將明年的天然氣價格預測下調至3.89美元/百萬英熱單位，低于之前報告中預測的4.04美元/百萬英熱單位。
EIA認為，由于“非常溫和的天氣降低了對空間供暖的需求”，美國第一季度天然氣平均每天消費量為991億立方英尺，比去年同期下降了5%。EIA認為，住宅和商業天然氣消費量降幅最大。
由于對天然氣消費量下降的預期，EIA現在預計美國將在3月底結束天然氣提取季節，天然氣庫存將超過1.9萬億立方英尺，這一數字比五年平均水平高出23%，比EIA在1月份《短期能源展望報告》中預測的數字高出27%。
EIA表示，美國國家海洋和大氣管理局1月和2月的初步數據顯示，2023年的前兩個月可能接近1895年數據有記錄以來的最高溫度。溫和的天氣集中在美國東部。
天然氣價格3月6日下跌12%，為1月30日以來最大跌幅，原因是天氣預報顯示天氣變暖，供暖需求下降。
李峻 編譯自 油價網
原文如下：
EIA Lowers Forecast For Natural Gas Prices
The Energy Information Administration has decreased its forecast for natural gas prices for 2023 and 2024 according to the latest edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Tuesday.
The EIA now sees natural gas prices averaging $3.02 per MMBtu this year, down 11.2 percent from its previous forecast of $3.40 per MMBtu. For comparison, natural gas prices averaged $6.42 per MMBtu in 2022, the EIA estimates.
The EIA has also lowered its forecast for natural gas prices for next year, to $3.89 per MMBtu, down from its estimate of $4.04 per MMBtu made its previous report.
The EIA sees natural gas consumption averaging 99.1 billion cubic feet per day in Q1, down 5% from the same quarter last year on the back of “very mild temperatures that have reduced demand for space heating.” The EIA sees the largest decline in residential and commercial natural gas consumption.
With this anticipation of lower natural gas consumption, the EIA now expects the United States will close the withdrawal season at the end of March with more than 1.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in storage—a figure which is 23% more than the five-year average and 27% more than what the EIA forecast in its January STEO.
The EIA said that preliminary data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for January and February indicate the first two months of 2023 may be close to the warmest on record for that period in data going back to 1895. The mild weather was concentrated in the eastern part of the United States.
Natural gas prices fell 12% on Monday—the largest drop since January 30—driven by forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand.